If Australians could vote for either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump, the result would be a landslide, says survey

As featured on ABC News Australia by Q+A and RN Breakfast host Patricia Karvelas

"Kamala is ready. The question is: Are we?"

That was the question the governor of North Carolina Roy Cooper posed ahead of a speech by Kamala Harris on the last night of the Democratic National Convention.

The "we" was addressed, of course, to the American voting public who are deeply polarised over their choice despite a surge of momentum towards US Vice-President Harris, who is now officially the Democratic presidential nominee.

But if we had been asked about us, Australians living in a middle power aligned so closely to the United States and obsessively watching this show as if it were a Hollywood blockbuster, the answer would have been an unequivocal yes.

Harris's campaign HQ is calling for a "Femininomenon" at the polls this November, using the hit song from Chappell Roan in a meme that's flooded the internet. And it looks like Australia — with no woman candidate in sight for PM — has joined the Femininomenon in the US. We have been quietly having our own brat winter.

New polling conducted by consultant and pollsters Talbot Mills Research has found Australians — who won't get a vote in November — are overwhelmingly ready to elect Kamala Harris.

Even Coalition voters prefer Kamala Harris in Australia to Donald Trump. That's right, centre-right voters in our country prefer Harris.

Who would Australians vote for?

If Australian voters decided the US presidential election, Kamala Harris would easily beat Donald Trump by 48 per cent to 27 per cent.

Now to be clear, winning the popular vote wouldn't necessarily determine the outcome. Most US experts argue a popular vote of 30 per cent is about as low as you could go. But some have claimed even lower percentages were possible.

David Talbot, director of Talbot Mills Research which is ANACTA Group's research partner, served as pollster and strategist for New Zealand's last two Labour prime ministers, Jacinda Ardern and Chris Hipkins. In Australia, he was involved in Labor's successful campaigns in the 2022 federal election and the Victorian state election.

He said in Australia, the support for Harris is very high.

"Australians have taken warmly to Kamala Harris. Even Coalition voters prefer Harris to Trump by 43 per cent to 37 per cent," Talbot told this column.

Last month, a poll conducted by the same firm investigated voter opinions of Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Biden (30 per cent) was barely ahead of Trump (28 per cent).

By vote, Greens (58 per cent to 17 per cent) and Labor (59 per cent to 22 per cent) strongly favoured Harris over Trump.

It was a tighter contest amongst Coalition voters, who favoured Harris by 43 per cent to 37 per cent over Trump.

Pauline Hanson One Nation voters broke decisively (58 per cent to 18 per cent) for Trump.

One Nation voters back Trump

In a hypothetical US vote, Labor, Greens and Coalition voters favour Harris, while there is strong support for Trump from One Nation voters.

"We also saw a decided gender gap with men more likely to support Trump and women Harris," Talbot said.

This gender difference is consistent in the United States, too. In fact, I've previously written about the gender voting gap, which sees women voting increasingly to the left and men to the right.